Sentiment Index track record
The original AriB Sentiment Index against BTC, and how BTC moved after each index signal. Research record, not trade advice.
As of 13 Oct 04:26 UTC · methodology 1.0.0-rc2 · sources
Sentiment Index
31
Bearish
0-100 · relative to its own 30-day baseline
Change vs ~24h ago
-16
Falling
index points
Story split (24h)
59.5% bullish · 19.5% neutral · 21.1% bearish (1285 items)
Sentiment Index vs BTC
Sentiment Index (0-100, left)BTC price (right)dashed lines: 40 / 60 bands
Bearish divergence: index -16 pts, BTC -0.14% over 24h. Sentiment is cooling while price holds up.
Track record
Signals graded
44
Win rate
70.5%
Target hit rate (touched 1.0%)
56.8%
Index calls / crossover signals
16 / 28
A call is a confirmed directional regime change of the index (enter above 61 or below 39). A hit means BTC touched 1.0% in the called direction within 24h. A win is a hit, or at least 0.25% in favour at 24h. Research record, not trade advice.
Live call: bearish since 2026-10-12 19:13 UTC, now +1.09%, peak -1.30%, 14.6h left.
Crossovers (60 / 40)
| Event | Events | Last | Graded | Win rate | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cross above 60 | 20 | 2026-10-05 08:38 | 20 | 70.0% | 55.0% |
| Cross below 40 | 10 | 2026-10-12 19:32 | 8 | 87.5% | 75.0% |
Recent calls
| Time (UTC) | Call | Index | BTC 24h | Peak | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 04:33 | bearish | 38 | -1.57% | -1.72% | win |
| 2026-10-05 20:52 | bullish | 61 | -0.20% | +0.88% | loss |
| 2026-10-04 20:15 | bullish | 62 | +0.33% | +1.82% | win |
| 2026-09-28 10:19 | bearish | 39 | +0.27% | +0.12% | loss |
| 2026-09-26 20:37 | bullish | 63 | +0.60% | +1.12% | win |
| 2026-09-24 21:29 | bearish | 39 | -0.89% | -1.13% | win |
| 2026-09-18 19:57 | bullish | 62 | +0.10% | +0.71% | loss |
| 2026-09-15 15:40 | bearish | 37 | -0.78% | -1.42% | win |
By month
| Month | Signals | Win rate | Sum of 24h moves | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08 | 13 | 53.8% | +4.83% | +0.37% |
| 2026-09 | 24 | 79.2% | +17.57% | +0.73% |
| 2026-10 | 7 | 71.4% | +3.97% | +0.57% |
Direction-adjusted BTC move 24h after each graded signal.
Estimated liquidation levels
Nearest cluster above
$91,247 (+9.50%)
Nearest cluster below
$74,581 (-10.50%)
Estimated from recent prices and common leverage tiers, not exchange data. Full derivatives analysis: AriB Derivatives Intelligence.