Forward reaction record collecting
How BTC moved after narrative events in the past. Descriptive history with small samples, not a forecast and not a trading signal.
As of 12 Oct 15:54 UTC · methodology 1.0.0-rc2 · sources
Read with care The methodology has not been frozen yet, so every row is in-sample and descriptive. A forward record starts at the V1 freeze. Events used: 0. Overlapping 24h windows remain correlated even after merging bursts into episodes.
Forward reaction record collecting. Each story is recorded when first observed under the current methodology and its BTC move is measured after 1, 4 and 24 hours. No result is shown until a group has 10 independent episodes. Events recorded so far: 0. Results produced by earlier, retired methods are not shown.
Event definition
- One event per story (stable key: canonical URL of its earliest article), never per article.
- Time zero is when the system first observed the story. Moves before that moment are never counted, even if the story was published earlier.
- The BTC price at time zero must be a stored price within 30 minutes. Otherwise the event is excluded.
- Events in the same narrative within 6 hours are merged into one episode (the first is kept).
- Tone groups use the story's news tone at first observation: positive at +0.10 or above, negative at -0.10 or below.
- Pre-audit "win rates" and "forecasts" were retired. See Validation.